WASHINGTON – The first in-depth analysis of the Jewish vote that includes the 2024 election finds that non-Orthodox Jewish voters supported Democrats at a higher rate than in the 2012 and 2016 elections. The study, conducted on behalf of the non-partisan Jewish Voters Resource Center (JVRC), is a uniquely comprehensive analysis of Jewish voter behavior that draws on data going back to the 2012 election across denominations, analyzes turnout trends, measures shifting attitudes on antisemitism and Israel, and incorporates qualitative findings from recent focus groups of Jewish voters. 

JVRC found that non-Orthodox Jewish voters supported Democrats at higher levels in 2024 than they did in 2012 and 2016. Orthodox Jews – who compose approximately 9% of the Jewish American population – have shifted noticeably toward Republicans. Jewish support for Democrats was even higher in 2020, but the study shows that the 2020 election was an aberration given President Trump’s historic unpopularity amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, Kamala Harris’s 71 percent vote share in 2024 was nearly identical to Democratic performances in the 2012 (70 percent) and 2016 (70 percent) presidential elections, and issues that Jews identified as most important in determining their vote in 2024 were the future of democracy and abortion.

The JVRC analysis found that older generations are much more concerned about antisemitism than younger generations, including concerns about antisemitism on college campuses, and that half of American Jews believe Trump is antisemitic, and they believe his administration’s actions claiming to combat antisemitism actually increase antisemitism.

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The study includes a groundbreaking analysis of Jewish voter turnout, the first time that Jewish voter turnout has been analyzed using methodologically sound estimates. In the 2022 midterm elections, Jewish turnout exceeded general population turnout by 21%.

JVRC also assessed the methodology of various public surveys of Jewish voters in the 2024 election, and explained why different surveys often report different results in the Jewish vote. A key factor is whether surveys poll the entire Jewish voting population or fail to include Jewish voters who identify as “Jews not by religion,” who constitute  27% of the Jewish population, according to Pew Research. 

In addition, Jim Gerstein of GBAO Strategies, who compiled the analysis for JVRC, cautioned against drawing conclusions based on precinct-level results in precincts with large Jewish populations because these studies fail to take into account the non-Jewish vote in these precincts and may significantly differ from the Jewish vote. And in precincts that are nearly entirely Jewish, participants tend to be disproportionately Orthodox and not representative of the Jewish vote as a whole.